Modelling the Potential Public Health Impact of Different COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies with an Adapted Vaccine in Singapore.

IF 5.5 3区医学 Q1 IMMUNOLOGY

Expert Review of Vaccines Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-12 DOI:10.1080/14760584.2023.2290931

Karan Thakkar, Julia Spinardi, Moe H Kyaw, Jingyan Yang, Carlos Fernando Mendoza, Egemen Ozbilgili, Bulent Taysi, Josie Dodd, Ben Yarnoff, Helen M Oh

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Abstract

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has been a dynamically changing virus, requiring the development of adapted vaccines. This study estimated the potential public health impact alternative vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore.

Research design and methods: The outcomes of alternative vaccination strategies with a future adapted vaccine were estimated using a combined Markov decision tree model. The population was stratified by high- and standard-risk. Using age-specific inputs informed by local surveillance data and published sources, the model estimated health (case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic (medical costs and productivity losses) outcomes in different age and risk subpopulations.

Results: Booster vaccination in only the elderly and high-risk subpopulation was estimated to avert 278,614 cases 21,558 hospitalizations, 239 deaths, Singapore dollars (SGD) 277 million in direct medical costs, and SGD 684 million in indirect medical costs. These benefits increased as vaccination was expanded to other subpopulations. Increasing the booster vaccination coverage to 75% of the standard-risk population averted more deaths (3%), hospitalizations (29%), infections (145%), direct costs (90%), and indirect costs (192%) compared to the base case.

Conclusions: Broader vaccination strategies using an adapted booster vaccine could have substantial public health and economic impact in Singapore.

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在新加坡使用适应疫苗对不同COVID-19疫苗接种策略的潜在公共卫生影响进行建模

背景:引起COVID-19的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2)是一种动态变化的病毒，需要开发适应疫苗。本研究估计了新加坡COVID-19替代疫苗接种策略的潜在公共卫生影响。研究设计和方法:使用联合马尔可夫决策树模型估计未来适应疫苗的替代疫苗接种策略的结果。人群按高风险和标准风险分层。该模型利用当地监测数据和公开来源提供的特定年龄输入，估计了不同年龄和风险亚人群的健康(病例数、住院和死亡)和经济(医疗费用和生产力损失)结果。结果:仅在老年人和高危亚人群中加强疫苗接种估计可避免278,614例病例，21,558例住院，239例死亡，直接医疗费用为2.77亿新元，间接医疗费用为6.84亿新元。随着疫苗接种扩展到其他亚群，这些益处也会增加。与基本情况相比，将加强疫苗接种覆盖率提高到标准风险人群的75%可避免更多的死亡(3%)、住院(29%)、感染(145%)、直接费用(90%)和间接费用(192%)。结论:在新加坡，使用适应性加强疫苗的更广泛的疫苗接种策略可能对公共卫生和经济产生重大影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Expert Review of Vaccines 医学-免疫学

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

3.20%

发文量

136

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Expert Review of Vaccines (ISSN 1476-0584) provides expert commentary on the development, application, and clinical effectiveness of new vaccines. Coverage includes vaccine technology, vaccine adjuvants, prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, AIDS vaccines and vaccines for defence against bioterrorism. All articles are subject to rigorous peer-review. The vaccine field has been transformed by recent technological advances, but there remain many challenges in the delivery of cost-effective, safe vaccines. Expert Review of Vaccines facilitates decision making to drive forward this exciting field.