A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2

Abstract

Theory predicts that rising CO2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide. The authors incorporate terrestrial biosphere models with ecological optimality theory, remote sensing and global carbon budget estimates to constrain the historical effects of CO2 on photosynthesis. They show that CO2 fertilization likely increased global photosynthesis by 13.5% between 1981 and 2020.