Dog screening as a novel complementary guinea worm disease control tool to mitigate persistence in Chad: A modeling study

IF 2 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Parasite Epidemiology and Control Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.parepi.2023.e00328

Mlyashimbi Helikumi , Steady Mushayabasa

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A free-roaming dog population remains one of the major public health problems in many developing countries. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of owned roaming and stray dogs on the persistence and possible eradication of Guinea worm disease (GWD) in Chad. We developed and analysed a multi-host of Guinea worm; and considered dogs as the definitive hosts, and fish as the intermediate hosts. Currently, GWD cases in the human population are low; hence, we ignored the human population in this study. We derived the reproduction number and explored how it depends on different model parameters that define it. We calibrated the proposed model with data from literature and validated it with recently reported GWD monthly data for dog infection in Chad from 2019 to 2022. Results show that detection and tethering of infectious owned free-roaming dogs combined with culling of stray dogs are effective disease management strategies. Hence, attainment of certain threshold levels for these interventions could lead to disease eradication. Overall, the study revealed how different factors could be applied to effectively manage GWD transmission in the dog population. Findings from this study could be used to support decision-making in GWD control strategies.

Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 92B05, 93A30, 93C15.

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狗筛查作为一种新的补充麦地那龙线虫病控制工具，以减轻乍得的持久性:一项建模研究

在许多发展中国家，自由流浪的狗群仍然是主要的公共卫生问题之一。在这项研究中，我们调查了拥有的流浪狗和流浪狗对乍得麦地那龙线虫病(GWD)持续存在和可能根除的潜在影响。我们开发并分析了麦地那龙线虫的多宿主;认为狗是最终宿主，鱼是中间宿主。目前，人口中的GWD病例很低;因此，我们在本研究中忽略了人口。我们推导了再现数，并探索了它如何依赖于定义它的不同模型参数。我们用文献数据校准了提出的模型，并用最近报道的乍得2019年至2022年狗感染的GWD月度数据对其进行了验证。结果表明，检测并拴住具有传染性的自养流浪狗，结合扑杀流浪狗是有效的疾病管理策略。因此，达到这些干预措施的某些阈值水平可能导致疾病根除。总的来说，该研究揭示了如何应用不同的因素来有效地控制犬群中的GWD传播。本研究结果可用于支持GWD控制策略的决策。数学学科分类(2010):92B05, 93A30, 93C15。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Parasite Epidemiology and Control Medicine-Infectious Diseases

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

3.10%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Parasite Epidemiology and Control is an Open Access journal. There is an increasing amount of research in the parasitology area that analyses the patterns, causes, and effects of health and disease conditions in defined populations. This epidemiology of parasite infectious diseases is predominantly studied in human populations but also spans other major hosts of parasitic infections and as such this journal will have a broad remit. We will focus on the major areas of epidemiological study including disease etiology, disease surveillance, drug resistance and geographical spread and screening, biomonitoring, and comparisons of treatment effects in clinical trials for both human and other animals. We will also look at the epidemiology and control of vector insects. The journal will also cover the use of geographic information systems (Epi-GIS) for epidemiological surveillance which is a rapidly growing area of research in infectious diseases. Molecular epidemiological approaches are also particularly encouraged.