Energy efficient decarbonisation strategy for the Danish transport sector by 2045

Abstract

The transport sector contributes to approximately one third of Danish greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and almost half of emissions from the energy sector. A unified Danish parliament agreed to reduce total emissions with 70% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. This paper estimates the potential for reducing the national transport sector GHG emissions in 2030 and proposes a pathway towards full decarbonisation in 2045 using a complex set of measures.

Towards 2030, the major focus is on an extensive electrification for passenger cars, alongside the implementation of significant measures to achieve lower growth rates for kilometers travelled by car and aircraft. From 2030 onwards, a decisive focus is set on sector integration. Production of electrofuels proves to be a key measure to decarbonize aviation, shipping and long-distance road freight transport.

The results show a reduction of GHG emissions of 41% in 2030 and full decarbonisation in 2045. The reduction is achieved without a significant increase of socio-economic costs. From 2030 to 2045, a substantial electrification of road transport and a focus of moving the need for mobility from roads towards rail and bicycles drives the full-decarbonisation together with the replacement of fossil fuels with electrofuels for aviation, shipping and heavy-duty road transport.