Quiescence Raises the Risk of Major Pandemic Outbreaks: Insights from Mathematical Modelling

Abstract

The impact of quiescence or dormancy periods on the dynamics of infectious diseases and their possible involvement in significant pandemic outbreaks are investigated in this study. By using of simulation and mathematical modelling, we show that quiescence greatly raises the likelihood of widespread pandemics. Quiescent people, who are infected but aren’t actively spreading the disease, build up an undiscovered reservoir that can drive virulent epidemics when the conditions are right for them to change from passive to active infectious states. Insights from this study can help public health efforts to lessen the effects of transmissible diseases with quiescent phases on global health. It also advances our understanding of pandemic dynamics.