Past, present and future trends in tuberculosis epidemiology in a region of northern Italy. An analysis carried out through the application of a simulation model (Eskimo).

Abstract

The epidemiological model Eskimo has been utilized to simulate some epidemiological parameters relative to tuberculosis in a restricted geographical area of northern Italy. After having identified a series of features relative to the regimens applied in the area in the period 1982-86 and which were found to be compatible with the observed data, this hypothesis has been utilized to project data on tuberculosis for the period 1986-1996. The results have indicated that the incidence in the area should stabilize around values of 20 new cases per year (per 100,000 population). A decrease in the incidence can be expected to occur only if the regimens so far employed are brought to a greater part of the patients' population (increasing coverage). The effects of importing the disease from developing countries through immigration and of the AIDS epidemic are likely to negatively affect the trend of tuberculosis incidence in the future.