Demographic situation in China and its potential influence on the Chinese economy

Abstract

The article analyses the origins of the current demographic situation in China, its perception in Western scientific and expert circles, as well as the measures of today’s demographic policy of the PRC authorities and forecasts for further changes in the structure of the Chinese economy in the context of the “second demographic transition” taking place in the country. The main phases in the demographic policy of China since the creation of the PRC are briefly described: from the active encouragement of fertility in the 1950s and 1960s to the “one family — one child” policy of severe restrictions (1980–2015) and then return to the encouragement of fertility. It is shown that the current demographic policy of the Chinese authorities not only meets the economic needs but also has a social and ideological dimension, returning the country to traditional Confucian ideas of the role of population growth as a factor of the country’s power and prosperity. At the same time, the measures of the present Chinese authorities do not demonstrate a high level of efficiency and are unlikely to reverse the trend of the demographic transition. Still the paper concludes that the forecasts of some experts about the inevitable loss of growth momentum in the Chinese economy in the context of the natural population decline that began in 2022 cannot be considered fully realistic. China actually follows the global trend of transition to a “plateau” in population growth, as gradually becoming one of developed economies of the world. China’s future political and economic influence in the world will depend rather on the quality than on the size of its population and labor force.