Alternative parameter learning schemes for monitoring process stability

IF 1.3 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL
Daniele Zago, Giovanna Capizzi
{"title":"Alternative parameter learning schemes for monitoring process stability","authors":"Daniele Zago, Giovanna Capizzi","doi":"10.1080/08982112.2023.2253891","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"AbstractIn statistical process control, accurately estimating in-control (IC) parameters is crucial for effective monitoring. This typically requires a Phase I analysis to obtain estimates before monitoring commences. The traditional “fixed” estimate (FE) approach uses these estimates exclusively, while the “adaptive” estimate (AE) approach updates the estimates with each new observation. Such extreme criteria reflect the traditional bias-variance tradeoff in the framework of the sequential parameter learning schemes. This paper proposes an intermediate update rule that generalizes two ad hoc criteria for monitoring univariate Gaussian data, by giving a lower probability to parameter updates when an out-of-control (OC) situation is likely, therefore updating more frequently when there is no evidence of an OC scenario. The simulation study shows that this approach improves the detection power for small and early shifts, which are commonly regarded as a weakness of control charts based on fully online adaptive estimation. The paper also shows that the proposed method performs similarly to the fully adaptive procedure for larger or later shifts. The proposed method is illustrated by monitoring the sudden increase in ICU counts during the 2020 COVID outbreak in New York.Keywords: Adaptive estimationwindow of opportunityestimation effectsstatistical process control AcknowledgmentsThe authors thank the editor and the reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which improved the quality of the paper.Disclosure statementThe authors report there are no competing interests to declare.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by UNIPD under Grant DOR2021.Notes on contributorsDaniele ZagoDaniele Zago is a current Ph.D. student in Statistics at the University of Padua since 2021. He obtained his bachelor's degree in Statistics for Technology and Science and his master's degrees in Statistical Sciences from the University of Padua. His main research interests revolve around fundamental issues in practical applications of statistical process control and optimization.Giovanna CapizziDr. Giovanna Capizzi is a full Professor of Statistics at the University of Padua. She earned her Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Padua in 1992. Dr. Capizzi's main research interest is in statistical process monitoring, and she has made significant contributions to the field. she has published extensively in several international peer-reviewed journals, including Statistics and Computing, Technometrics, Journal of Quality Technology, IIE Transactions, and Quality Engineering. Dr. Capizzi serves as an associate editor of Technometrics since 2013, and she is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Quality Technology since 2014.","PeriodicalId":20846,"journal":{"name":"Quality Engineering","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quality Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08982112.2023.2253891","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

AbstractIn statistical process control, accurately estimating in-control (IC) parameters is crucial for effective monitoring. This typically requires a Phase I analysis to obtain estimates before monitoring commences. The traditional “fixed” estimate (FE) approach uses these estimates exclusively, while the “adaptive” estimate (AE) approach updates the estimates with each new observation. Such extreme criteria reflect the traditional bias-variance tradeoff in the framework of the sequential parameter learning schemes. This paper proposes an intermediate update rule that generalizes two ad hoc criteria for monitoring univariate Gaussian data, by giving a lower probability to parameter updates when an out-of-control (OC) situation is likely, therefore updating more frequently when there is no evidence of an OC scenario. The simulation study shows that this approach improves the detection power for small and early shifts, which are commonly regarded as a weakness of control charts based on fully online adaptive estimation. The paper also shows that the proposed method performs similarly to the fully adaptive procedure for larger or later shifts. The proposed method is illustrated by monitoring the sudden increase in ICU counts during the 2020 COVID outbreak in New York.Keywords: Adaptive estimationwindow of opportunityestimation effectsstatistical process control AcknowledgmentsThe authors thank the editor and the reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which improved the quality of the paper.Disclosure statementThe authors report there are no competing interests to declare.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by UNIPD under Grant DOR2021.Notes on contributorsDaniele ZagoDaniele Zago is a current Ph.D. student in Statistics at the University of Padua since 2021. He obtained his bachelor's degree in Statistics for Technology and Science and his master's degrees in Statistical Sciences from the University of Padua. His main research interests revolve around fundamental issues in practical applications of statistical process control and optimization.Giovanna CapizziDr. Giovanna Capizzi is a full Professor of Statistics at the University of Padua. She earned her Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Padua in 1992. Dr. Capizzi's main research interest is in statistical process monitoring, and she has made significant contributions to the field. she has published extensively in several international peer-reviewed journals, including Statistics and Computing, Technometrics, Journal of Quality Technology, IIE Transactions, and Quality Engineering. Dr. Capizzi serves as an associate editor of Technometrics since 2013, and she is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Quality Technology since 2014.
监测过程稳定性的可选参数学习方案
摘要在统计过程控制中,准确估计控制参数是有效监控的关键。这通常需要在监测开始之前进行第一阶段分析以获得估计。传统的“固定”估计(FE)方法专门使用这些估计,而“自适应”估计(AE)方法根据每个新的观察更新估计。这种极端准则反映了序列参数学习方案框架中传统的偏差-方差权衡。本文提出了一种中间更新规则,通过在可能出现失控(OC)情况时给出较低的参数更新概率,从而在没有OC场景证据时更新更频繁,从而推广了监测单变量高斯数据的两个特别标准。仿真研究表明,该方法提高了小位移和早位移的检测能力,而小位移和早位移通常被认为是基于全在线自适应估计的控制图的弱点。本文还表明,对于较大或较晚的位移,该方法的性能与完全自适应方法相似。通过监测2020年纽约新冠肺炎疫情期间ICU计数突然增加的情况,证明了所提出的方法。关键词:自适应估计机会窗口估计效应统计过程控制致谢感谢编辑和审稿人提出的建设性意见和建议,提高了论文的质量。作者报告无利益竞争需要申报。本工作由联合国发展规划署在DOR2021赠款下支持。daniele Zago自2021年起在帕多瓦大学攻读统计学博士学位。他获得了帕多瓦大学(University of Padua)的统计技术与科学学士学位和统计科学硕士学位。他的主要研究兴趣围绕统计过程控制和优化的实际应用中的基本问题。乔凡娜CapizziDr。Giovanna Capizzi是帕多瓦大学统计学正教授。她于1992年在帕多瓦大学获得统计学博士学位。Capizzi博士的主要研究兴趣是统计过程监测,她在该领域做出了重大贡献。她在多个国际同行评审期刊上发表了大量文章,包括统计与计算、技术计量学、质量技术期刊、IIE Transactions和质量工程。Capizzi博士自2013年起担任Technometrics的副主编,自2014年起担任the Journal of Quality Technology的编辑委员会成员。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Quality Engineering
Quality Engineering ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
10.00%
发文量
52
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Quality Engineering aims to promote a rich exchange among the quality engineering community by publishing papers that describe new engineering methods ready for immediate industrial application or examples of techniques uniquely employed. You are invited to submit manuscripts and application experiences that explore: Experimental engineering design and analysis Measurement system analysis in engineering Engineering process modelling Product and process optimization in engineering Quality control and process monitoring in engineering Engineering regression Reliability in engineering Response surface methodology in engineering Robust engineering parameter design Six Sigma method enhancement in engineering Statistical engineering Engineering test and evaluation techniques.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信