Detecting the hot hand in amateur bowlers

IF 2.3 3区心理学 Q2 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI:10.1080/1612197x.2023.2268092

Mark A. Stellmack, Andrew J. Byrne, Stanley Sheft, Nikita A. Salovich, Adrienne B. Manbeck

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe hot hand, often invoked in describing athletic performances, refers to the notion that the probability of success is conditional upon recent success or failure. The present paper describes a method of identifying hot-hand behavior in which data from amateur 10-pin bowlers were fit with a model containing dynamically varying probabilities of success and failure (hot-hand model) and one with fixed probabilities (stable model). Full-season data of 27 out of 40 bowlers were found to be better fit by the hot-hand model. Following success, different bowlers showed increased or decreased probability of success (hot-hand behavior or underperformance, respectively). Analysis of the two halves of each bowler’s data indicated that the extent of hot-hand behavior or underperformance varied across the season. Overall, results suggest that the conditional probabilities that define performance can vary in an individual over time such that anticipation of hot-hand performance can be a reasonable expectation in certain circumstances.KEYWORDS: Hot handstreaksbowlingprobabilistic modelling AcknowledgmentsThe authors thank Flaherty’s Arden Bowl in Arden Hills, Minnesota for providing the data used in these analyses.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Data availability statementThe data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, MAS, upon reasonable request.

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发现业余投球手的热手

【摘要】热手，经常被用来描述运动成绩，指的是成功的概率取决于最近的成功或失败。本文描述了一种识别热手行为的方法，其中业余10针保龄球运动员的数据与包含动态变化的成功和失败概率(热手模型)和固定概率(稳定模型)的模型相拟合。40名投球手中有27名的全赛季数据被发现更适合热手模型。在成功之后，不同的投球手表现出成功的可能性增加或减少(分别是热手行为或表现不佳)。对每位投球手的两半数据的分析表明，热手行为或表现不佳的程度在整个赛季都有所不同。总的来说，结果表明，定义表现的条件概率会随着时间的推移而变化，因此在某些情况下，对热手表现的预期可能是合理的预期。作者感谢明尼苏达州阿登山的Flaherty 's Arden Bowl提供了这些分析中使用的数据。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。数据可用性声明支持本研究结果的数据可根据合理要求从通讯作者MAS处获得。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology Multiple-

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

3.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology (IJSEP) is sponsored by the International Society of Sport and Exercise Psychology (ISSP). Primary purposes of IJSEP are to promote understanding of sport psychology research and practice around the world, enhance theoretical and practical knowledge in these fields and promote high-quality scientific and applied work in sport and exercise psychology. Sections in the Journal are devoted to areas including group dynamics, moral and ethical issues, social aspects in sport and exercise, and biological aspects of behavior.