Human Development Index Forecasting with Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing and Naïve Method

Cauchy Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI:10.18860/ca.v8i2.20705

Dara Puspita Anggraeni, Ni Komang Sutrasni

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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to forecast the Human Development Index (HDI) using the moving average (MA) method, the simple exponential smoothing method and the naïve method. The region forecasted for its HDI is North Lombok Regency, for which it has the lowest HDI in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The data used for this research is the HDI from 2010 to 2022. The selection of these methods is due to the limited amount of data and the popularity of MA, SES, and Naïve method in the world of forecasting until this day. The results of this research is the MA method which consists of MA MA3, SMA MA5, WMA MA3, WMA MA5, EMA MA3, EMA MA5, and SES tested value α=0.1 and α=0.9 and Naïve method have a high degree of accuracy that can be seen in the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value which is below 10%. However, the chosen method is the best method with the smallest MAPE which is Naïve method with MAPE 1.32% where MAPE is below 10% indicating that the model used is Highly accurate and the result of North Lombok Regency HDI in 2023 is 65.7 which means that the HDI in North Lombok Regency has not changed. HDI in North Lombok Regency stay on middle level

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移动平均、简单指数平滑和Naïve方法预测人类发展指数

本研究的目的是利用移动平均线(MA)方法、简单指数平滑法和naïve方法预测人类发展指数(HDI)。预测其人类发展指数的地区是北龙目岛，该地区的人类发展指数在印度尼西亚的西努沙登加拉最低。本研究使用的数据为2010年至2022年的人类发展指数。之所以选择这些方法，是因为数据量有限，而且直到今天，MA、SES和Naïve方法在预测界都很流行。本研究结果表明，由MA MA3、SMA MA5、WMA MA3、WMA MA5、EMA MA3、EMA MA5和SES测试值α=0.1和α=0.9组成的MA方法和Naïve方法具有较高的准确度，其平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)值低于10%。然而，所选择的方法是MAPE最小的最佳方法，即Naïve方法，MAPE为1.32%，MAPE低于10%，表明所使用的模型精度很高，2023年北龙目岛的HDI结果为65.7，这意味着北龙目岛的HDI没有变化。北龙目岛的人类发展指数保持在中等水平

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Cauchy

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