“Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier”: Security and Communal Implications for Iraq

Abstract

Climate change is a “threat multiplier” and has posed a deep security concern in many countries by targeting the human security of different communities. Iraq is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This conceptual study explores how climate change is a threat multiplier to Iraqi human security and poses significant societal and security threats. The article starts by providing some conceptual discussions to measure and comprehend the idea of climate change as a threat multiplier. To define a “threat multiplier,” the study articulates some scholarly measurements of the concept and illustrates its leading indicators discussed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The author adds intragovernmental disputes and interprovincial tensions to the framework as additional indicators to better understand the security risks of climate variability in Iraq. The article then discusses the societal and security ramifications of the climate-related human movements that have undermined the security and stability of Iraq. Finally, the analysis illustrates how climate change might exacerbate security challenges to the country by enabling tribes, militant groups, and extremists to recruit climate-affected individuals and intensify communal violence in the country.