The Fertility Revolution of the Arab Countries Following the Arab Spring

Abstract

While the Arab Spring was primarily a revolution of young civilians against the old regimes, its influence on fertility patterns and natalist policies has not received sufficient attention. The first part of this article examines fertility in Arab countries on the eve of the uprisings, and the second looks into the patterns from the decade following the onset of the protests through the outbreak of Covid-19. The third part analyzes the impact of the Arab Spring on the states’ natalist policies, and the final section deals with the socioeconomic challenges imposed by the current demographic structures of these countries. The conclusion is that during the 2010s, the non-oil Arab countries went through two fertility revolutions, with an increase in the first few years and a substantial decrease after. Will the Arab states achieve the targeted replacement-level fertility rate, as was the case in many developing countries around the world over the past generation, including many non-Arab Islamic countries? And what are the socioeconomic and political consequences of this fertility revolution in the Arab countries?