The Turning Point of 2022: Global Trends of International Cooperation in the Short and Medium Term

Abstract

The article discusses the current formats of international cooperation after the start of a special military operation of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine. It is concluded that the beginning of the CSR became a catalyst for global changes, the transition of the world from a system of globalization and a rules-based order to a new system of macro[1]regions and a system of states-civilizations. The methods of discourse analysis and event analysis are used to examine global trends, among which are the curtailment of globalization processes, the gradual departure from the Jamaican monetary system, and geopolitical instability. With the help of system and intent analysis, prospective future macro-regional associations are studied: European, American, Asian, Middle Eastern, African, Eurasian. Conclusions are drawn about the future fate of the geopolitical leaders – the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union. It is summarized that the United States is in a deep political and civilizational crisis; it seems possible to «reset» this country, including in the version of a new civil war. It is said that the European Union is losing its economic and political sovereignty in favor of the United States. Russia is regarded as a civilization country with more than a thousand years of history, which takes the course of prioritizing national interests over an unfair rules-based order, which gives it the opportunity to take advantageous positions in the future system of international relations.