Can one “prove” that a harmful event was preventable? Conceptualizing and addressing epistemological puzzles in postincident reviews and investigations

IF 1.9 Q3 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-10 DOI:10.1002/rhc3.12281

Christoph O. Meyer

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract A growing part of the literature on crises, disasters, and policy failures focuses on the design, conduct, and impact of postincident reviews or inquiries, particularly whether the right lessons are identified and subsequently learned. However, such accounts underappreciate the specific challenge posed by epistemic puzzles, under what conditions their difficulty may vary, and which strategies could help to solve them. Drawing on insights from a wide range of cases, the article identifies hindsight bias, counterfactual reasoning, and root‐cause analysis as core components creating an epistemic triangle of inquiry puzzling. It advances four propositions about the conditions that help or hinder investigators' capacity to produce sound knowledge and concludes by setting out potential strategies that investigators can use to fully address or at least mitigate these epistemic challenges.

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一个人能“证明”一个有害事件是可以预防的吗?概念化和解决事件后回顾和调查中的认识论难题

关于危机、灾难和政策失败的文献越来越多地关注事件后审查或调查的设计、行为和影响，特别是是否确定并随后吸取了正确的教训。然而，这种说法低估了认知难题所带来的具体挑战，在什么条件下它们的困难可能会有所不同，以及哪些策略可以帮助解决它们。根据广泛案例的见解，文章确定了后见之明偏见，反事实推理和根本原因分析作为核心组成部分，创造了一个令人费解的调查认知三角。它提出了关于帮助或阻碍研究者产生可靠知识的能力的条件的四个命题，并通过制定研究者可以用来充分解决或至少减轻这些认知挑战的潜在策略来结束。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION-

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

8.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Scholarship on risk, hazards, and crises (emergencies, disasters, or public policy/organizational crises) has developed into mature and distinct fields of inquiry. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) addresses the governance implications of the important questions raised for the respective fields. The relationships between risk, hazards, and crisis raise fundamental questions with broad social science and policy implications. During unstable situations of acute or chronic danger and substantial uncertainty (i.e. a crisis), important and deeply rooted societal institutions, norms, and values come into play. The purpose of RHCPP is to provide a forum for research and commentary that examines societies’ understanding of and measures to address risk,hazards, and crises, how public policies do and should address these concerns, and to what effect. The journal is explicitly designed to encourage a broad range of perspectives by integrating work from a variety of disciplines. The journal will look at social science theory and policy design across the spectrum of risks and crises — including natural and technological hazards, public health crises, terrorism, and societal and environmental disasters. Papers will analyze the ways societies deal with both unpredictable and predictable events as public policy questions, which include topics such as crisis governance, loss and liability, emergency response, agenda setting, and the social and cultural contexts in which hazards, risks and crises are perceived and defined. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy invites dialogue and is open to new approaches. We seek scholarly work that combines academic quality with practical relevance. We especially welcome authors writing on the governance of risk and crises to submit their manuscripts.