Assessment and Projection of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in EC-Earth3 of CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract

Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) are severe weather events that can have significant impacts on human health, ecological systems, and socioeconomic factors. Compared to isolated extreme events, CWPEs can result in higher economic losses and casualties. This study evaluates the ability of EC-Earth3, the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to capture CWPEs by using ERA5 reanalysis as a reference dataset for model evaluation. Additionally, this study examines changes in CWPEs in the future, considering different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Our analysis indicates that EC-Earth3 accurately captures the spatial and temporal characteristics of global CWPEs during the historical period of 1979-2014. More CWPEs occur in the northern and southern hemispheres during their respective cold seasons, especially for the oceans. The frequency of CWPEs has increased over the historical period, with a greater increasing trend in the ocean than on land. The seasonal cycle of CWPEs differs significantly in land and ocean. Regarding future projections, the occurrence of CWPEs will change significantly with the increase of emissions, particularly in the late 21st century and over high latitudes. CWPEs will increase significantly at mid- and high-latitude regions and mainly decrease over low latitudes. The feature of more CWPEs occurring during the respective cold seasons will be more pronounced in the future.