THE IMPACT OF WAR-INDUCED FORCED MIGRATION ABROAD ON THE STATE OF UKRAINE'S LABOR POTENTIAL IN THE CONTEXT OF SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY

Olena Malynovska, Liubov Yatsenko
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Abstract

The labor potential is an important component of the country's economic potential, and its quan-titative and qualitative characteristics significantly affect the rate of economic growth and social sus-tainability. The article presents the general theoretical foundations of the concept of social sustainabil-ity, the main milestones of its formation, key principles and concepts. The information base for the study of migration flows and their expected impact on the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the labor potential was based on statistical data from Ukraine and countries that have provided asylum to forced migrants. The results of sociological surveys were also used, dozens of which were conducted by international organizations, foreign and Ukrainian think tanks during the war year. An analysis of the available estimates and reservations to them allowed us to formulate the author's assumption about the real number of refugees from Ukraine who have taken refuge in Europe, the United States, and Canada, as well as voluntarily or forcibly ended up in the Russian Federation. The socio-demographic charac-teristics of those who left indicate a significant outflow of working-age people, including a large number of highly skilled workers. A serious risk is posed by the emigration of children and young people, and their failure to return threatens the Ukrainian economy not only with a reduction in labor supply in the near future, but also with a deterioration in its quality characteristics and a loss of Ukraine's demo-graphic potential in the medium and long term. The massive out-migration of the population had a negative impact on effective demand, which is an important driver of the economy.The author proves the expediency of formulating and implementing the state policy of Ukraine aimed at counteracting these negative challenges, which is a prerequisite for ensuring social sustaina-bility. During the period of military operations and post-war recovery, state policy measures in the area of preserving and utilizing labor potential should be as effective as possible and aimed at creating a favorable environment for the return of war refugees to Ukraine and their reintegration into Ukrainian society.
在社会可持续性背景下,战争导致的强迫移民对乌克兰劳动力潜力状况的影响
劳动力潜力是国家经济潜力的重要组成部分,其数量和质量特征显著影响着经济增长率和社会可持续性。本文介绍了社会可持续性概念的一般理论基础、形成的主要里程碑、主要原则和概念。研究移徙流动及其对劳动力潜力的质和量特征的预期影响的信息库是以乌克兰和向被迫移徙者提供庇护的国家的统计数据为基础的。还使用了社会学调查的结果,其中几十项调查是由国际组织、外国和乌克兰智囊团在战争年进行的。对现有的估计数字和对他们的保留意见进行分析后,我们可以提出作者关于在欧洲、美国和加拿大避难以及自愿或被迫进入俄罗斯联邦的乌克兰难民的实际人数的假设。离开的人的社会人口特征表明,工作年龄人口大量外流,包括大量高技能工人。儿童和青年的移民构成了严重的危险,他们不返回不仅会在不久的将来减少劳动力供应,而且还会使其质量特征恶化,并在中期和长期内丧失乌克兰的人口潜力,从而威胁到乌克兰经济。人口的大量外迁对有效需求产生了负面影响,而有效需求是经济的重要动力。作者证明了制定和实施乌克兰旨在应对这些负面挑战的国家政策的权宜之计,这是确保社会可持续性的先决条件。在军事行动和战后恢复期间,保存和利用劳动力潜力方面的国家政策措施应尽可能有效,旨在为战争难民返回乌克兰和重新融入乌克兰社会创造有利的环境。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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