Geopolitical Risk and Investment

IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
XINJIE WANG, YANGRU WU, WEIKE XU
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Using a news-based index of geopolitical risk (GPR), we document a strong negative relationship between firm-level corporate investment and GPR. When the GPR index doubles, next-quarter investment declines by 14% of its sample mean. The effect is more pronounced for firms with more irreversible investment or higher market power, confirming the real options theory. However, the effect is less significant for firms with a stronger ability to substitute labor for capital, a higher labor-to-capital ratio, or a higher labor share, supporting the convex return theory. Overall, our results suggest that the real options channel dominates the Oi–Hartman–Abel effect.

地缘政治风险与投资
使用基于新闻的地缘政治风险指数(GPR),我们记录了公司层面的企业投资与GPR之间的强烈负相关关系。当GPR指数翻倍时,下一季度的投资将下降样本平均值的14%。对于不可逆投资较多或市场支配力较高的企业,这种效应更为明显,证实了实物期权理论。然而,对于劳动力替代资本能力较强、劳动资本比较高或劳动份额较高的企业,这种效应不太显著,支持凸回报理论。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,实物期权渠道主导了Oi-Hartman-Abel效应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
6.70%
发文量
98
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