Equitably Undeterred? Persistence of Education Mobility and Migration Intent among Upper Secondary Education Students throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the effects of the pandemic on future mobility aspirations, as COVID-19 pandemic induced disruptions in overall educational experience and international mobility. The authors assess whether the hardship caused by the pandemic has affected Croatian upper secondary school students’ international migration intent and aspirations for studying abroad. To that cause, authors combine three large-scale nationally representative studies conducted in the pre-pandemic (2017), pandemic (2021) and late-pandemic (2022) period. The results indicate that the number of days school spent in remote learning proved modestly associated with lower intent to migrate or to study abroad in 2021. However, contrary to expectations drawn from literature, the prevalence of intent of moving abroad remained persistent compared to pre-pandemic, while aspirations for studying abroad increased. The expected moderation effects of students’ socio-economic background on migration intent during the pandemic and school closure, failed to materialize, except for migration intent in 2021, when having tertiary-educated parents proved more advantageous. In line with recent Eurobarometer surveys, our analysis imply little evidence of long-term devaluation of mobility capital among Croatian upper secondary students, as the moderators throttling mobility aspirations have likely receded.