Trade space for time for inspecting an earthquake cycle by modern seismological observation: The central-southern part of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block

Abstract

The central-southern part of the eastern border of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block provides the research strategy of ‘trade space for time’ with an interesting fault system, where the segments have similar focal mechanisms and cover almost continuous spectra of elapse rates. We experiment to study the seismological characteristics of different segments with different elapse rates. We employed the de-clustered earthquake catalog for the calculation of b values for each segment. The analysis revealed that different segments have similar b values, which implies that, although different segments have different periods of earthquake recurrence, the 'natural time' for the whole fault system elapses with a homogeneous pace. We extended the earthquake potential score (EPS) for nowcasting earthquakes to a quasi-EPS (qEPS). It is found that qEPS increases with the increase of elapse rates, albeit for those fault segments whose elapse rates have exceeded 1, qEPS may better reflect the seismic hazard.