Strength of the winter North Atlantic jet stream has deviated from its natural trend under anthropogenic warming

IF 4.8 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOLOGY

Geology Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI:10.1130/g51329.1

Miaofa Li, Binggui Cai, Slobodan B. Marković, Luo Wang, Qingzhen Hao, Andy Baker, Milivoj B. Gavrilov, Liyuan Jiang, Fang Wang, Xuefeng Wang, Lisheng Wang, Zhibang Ma, Jule Xiao, Zhengtang Guo

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Abstract

The North Atlantic jet stream (NAJ) has a profound impact on the climate of the North Atlantic−European sector, especially in winter. Observations show that the winter NAJ (NAJw) has strengthened over the past ∼140 yr. However, it remains unclear whether this long-term trend has deviated from the natural variability. Here, we present a 2500-yr-long reconstruction of NAJw strength using high-quality stalagmite δ18O records from southeastern Europe. Our results show that the NAJw weakened during both the Roman Warm Period (B.C. 300−A.D. 200) and the Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 900−1250) but that it has strengthened under anthropogenic warming (since A.D. 1850). This indicates that its current trend has already deviated from the natural variability. The best explanation for this present anomalous trend of NAJw strength is that it was triggered by the appearance of the North Atlantic warming hole under anthropogenic forcing. This anomalous trend suggests that continued global warming may further strengthen the NAJw in the future.

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在人为变暖的影响下，北大西洋冬季急流的强度偏离了其自然趋势

北大西洋急流(NAJ)对北大西洋-欧洲地区的气候有着深远的影响，特别是在冬季。观测结果表明，冬季NAJ (NAJw)在过去~ 140年中有所增强。然而，尚不清楚这种长期趋势是否偏离了自然变率。在这里，我们利用来自东南欧的高质量石笋δ18O记录重建了2500年的NAJw强度。我们的研究结果表明，NAJw在罗马暖期(公元前300年至公元300年)和2000年)和中世纪暖期(公元900 - 1250年)，但在人为变暖时期(自公元1850年以来)，它有所加强。这表明其目前的趋势已经偏离了自然变率。对目前NAJw强度的这种异常趋势的最好解释是，它是由人为强迫下北大西洋变暖空洞的出现引发的。这一异常趋势表明，未来持续的全球变暖可能会进一步加强NAJw。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geology 地学-地质学

CiteScore

10.00

自引率

3.40%

发文量

228

审稿时长

6.2 months

期刊介绍： Published since 1973, Geology features rapid publication of about 23 refereed short (four-page) papers each month. Articles cover all earth-science disciplines and include new investigations and provocative topics. Professional geologists and university-level students in the earth sciences use this widely read journal to keep up with scientific research trends. The online forum section facilitates author-reader dialog. Includes color and occasional large-format illustrations on oversized loose inserts.

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