Predicting the potential ecological niche distribution of Slovenian forests under climate change using MaxEnt modelling

IF 1.3 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Acta Geographica Slovenica-Geografski Zbornik Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI:10.3986/ags.11561

Tim Gregorčič, Andrej Rozman, Blaž Repe

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The aim of the article is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on Slovenian forests in the period 2080–2100 based on two climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) using the MaxEnt software. Slovenian forests are divided at the ecological community level into thirteen forest vegetation types. Analyses of changes in ecological niche areas, distances of vectors between centroids of present areas and future ecological niches, and general spatial changes are carried out. In addition, changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types were investigated. The results indicate significant changes for Thermophilous beech forests and Thermophilous hop-hornbeam, sessile oak, downy oak, Scots pine and black pine forests. The potential changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types indicate a clear trend of forest vegetation types moving to higher altitudinal zones.

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利用MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下斯洛文尼亚森林潜在生态位分布

本文的目的是利用MaxEnt软件，基于两种气候情景:SSP1-2.6(乐观)和SSP5-8.5(悲观)，评估2080-2100年期间气候变化对斯洛文尼亚森林的潜在影响。斯洛文尼亚的森林在生态群落水平上分为13种森林植被类型。分析了生态位面积的变化、当前区域与未来生态位质心之间的向量距离以及总体空间变化。此外，还研究了森林植被类型的垂直带变化。结果表明，喜热山毛榉林、喜热蛇麻、无柄栎、毛毡栎、苏格兰松和黑松林的变化显著。森林植被类型的高程变化趋势表明，森林植被类型向高程移动的趋势明显。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Acta Geographica Slovenica-Geografski Zbornik 地学-地质学

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

35.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Acta geographica Slovenica publishes original research papers from all fields of geography and related disciplines, and provides a forum for discussing new aspects of theory, methods, issues, and research findings, especially in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. The review accepts original research papers and review papers. Papers presenting new developments and innovative methods in geography are welcome. Submissions should address current research gaps and explore state-of-the-art issues. Research based on case studies should have the added value of transnational comparison and should be integrated into established or new theoretical and conceptual frameworks. The target readership is researchers, policymakers, students, and others who are studying or applying geography at various levels. Submissions are accepted in English or Slovenian.