Goodness Test of Adaptability to Model of Technical Changes and Test of Forecasting Accuracy

Abstract

The technical coefficient input-output as an element of the technical coefficient matrix (A) is estimated to have good forecasts for the next several periods . By substituting the final demand (F) for the period into the Input Output (IO) model in the equation the total output for the period will be obtained from the forecasting results. The total output of forecasting results is then compared with the actual total output to see the magnitude of the deviation. In the regression equation, the coefficient of determination is a measure of “goodness of fit” which states how well the regression line explains the independent variable with the dependent variable. The test is carried out by regressing the technical coefficient of input-output in the year against the technical coefficient in the nth year in a simple linear regression equation . This test was conducted to see the validity of the technical coefficients in forecasting the IO model. This research is an empirical study that uses data from the Jambi Province Input Output Tables in 1998, 2007 and 2016, each of which has been collected in a common set to see the comparability between observation periods. The results show that the technical change model is quite well used for forecasting according to the assumption that the technical coefficient level is constant during the planning period. Meanwhile, the estimated output deviation tends to be higher than that of the actual data.