EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIES SENSITIVITY TO US DOLLAR'S STRENGTH DURING RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Abstract

This paper aims to study the sensitivity of emerging markets economies (EMEs) to the US Dollar's strength during the Russian-Ukrainian war in the long and the short run, where Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was used to analyze time series daily data in the period 2020-2023. We studied the impact of the US Dollar's strength on EMEs asset prices: EMEs currencies, EMEs bonds (US Dollar-denominated) and EMEs stocks, including the factor of the Russian-Ukrainian war as a dummy variable, as well as the effects of various economic factors: Federal Funds Rate, the US 10-year bond yield, commodity prices index and gold prices. The results showed that Russian-Ukrainian war has a significant positive impact on US Dollar's strength. In the other hand, both of them have significant negative impacts on EMEs asset prices, with varying degrees, where the aforementioned economic factors have asymmetric impacts. Moreover, EMEs stocks were the most Sensitive to Russian-Ukrainian war, US Dollar's strength and commodity prices, meanwhile EMEs bonds market were the least Sensitive.