Learning to Mitigate Epidemic Risks: A Dynamic Population Game Approach

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI:10.1007/s13235-023-00529-4

Ashish R. Hota, Urmee Maitra, Ezzat Elokda, Saverio Bolognani

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract We present a dynamic population game model to capture the behavior of a large population of individuals in presence of an infectious disease or epidemic. Individuals can be in one of five possible infection states at any given time: susceptible, asymptomatic, symptomatic, recovered and unknowingly recovered, and choose whether to opt for vaccination, testing or social activity with a certain degree. We define the evolution of the proportion of agents in each epidemic state, and the notion of best response for agents that maximize long-run discounted expected reward as a function of the current state and policy. We further show the existence of a stationary Nash equilibrium and explore the transient evolution of the disease states and individual behavior under a class of evolutionary learning dynamics. Our results provide compelling insights into how individuals evaluate the trade-off among vaccination, testing and social activity under different parameter regimes, and the impact of different intervention strategies (such as restrictions on social activity) on vaccination and infection prevalence.

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学习减轻流行病风险:动态人口博弈方法

摘要:我们提出了一个动态种群博弈模型，以捕捉存在传染病或流行病的大量个体的行为。个体在任何给定时间可处于易感、无症状、有症状、康复和不知情康复五种可能感染状态之一，并可选择是否选择接种疫苗、检测或进行一定程度的社会活动。我们定义了在每种流行病状态下agent比例的演变，以及作为当前状态和策略的函数，最大化长期预期折现奖励的agent的最佳响应概念。我们进一步证明了平稳纳什均衡的存在，并探讨了一类进化学习动力学下疾病状态和个体行为的短暂进化。我们的研究结果为个体如何在不同参数制度下评估疫苗接种、检测和社会活动之间的权衡，以及不同干预策略(如限制社会活动)对疫苗接种和感染流行的影响提供了令人信服的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.