Low emission scenarios with shared and electric cars: Analyzing life cycle emissions, biofuel use, battery utilization, and fleet development

IF 3.1 3区工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI:10.1080/15568318.2023.2248049

Hampus Berg Mårtensson , Mattias Höjer , Jonas Åkerman

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Passenger cars contribute considerably to total emissions of greenhouse gasses. In this article, we develop scenarios for the Swedish passenger car fleet in 2030, achieving a 70% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as compared to 2010. The number of shared and electric cars, how they are combined, and levels of biofuel use differ between the scenarios. Transport volumes, car access, battery use, indirect emissions, and fleet development are evaluated and compared. Conclusions based on the scenarios include:

Target-fulfillment requires a reduction in kilometers traveled by passenger cars. The reductions are 21%–47% per capita in six scenarios.
Major changes to both removal rate and new car sales are needed, highlighting a policy challenge for the coming decade.
Total battery capacity in the vehicle fleet increase from 1 GWh 2018 to 73–168 GWh in the six scenarios. This implies a need for careful consideration regarding resource scarcity and production capacity. A new metric, vehicle kilometers/(kWh*year), is developed and tested to explore efficiency in battery use.
Reducing direct emissions through a high production of electric cars causes tensions in relation to the European Emissions Trading System due to the indirect emissions that arise. It is therefore important to consider indirect emissions in policymaking.

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共享汽车和电动汽车的低排放方案：分析生命周期排放、生物燃料使用、电池利用和车队发展

乘用车对温室气体排放总量的贡献相当大。在本文中，我们为 2030 年的瑞典乘用车队制定了方案，实现温室气体排放量比 2010 年减少 70%。不同情景下，共享汽车和电动汽车的数量、组合方式以及生物燃料的使用水平均有所不同。对运输量、汽车使用、电池使用、间接排放和车队发展进行了评估和比较。根据这些方案得出的结论包括：实现目标需要减少乘用车的行驶公里数。在六种情景中，人均减少量为 21%-47%。需要对汽车淘汰率和新车销售进行重大调整，这凸显了未来十年的政策挑战。在六种情景中，车队的电池总容量从 2018 年的 1 GWh 增加到 73-168 GWh。这意味着需要仔细考虑资源稀缺性和生产能力。通过大量生产电动汽车来减少直接排放，由于会产生间接排放，与欧洲排放交易系统的关系会变得紧张。因此，在制定政策时必须考虑间接排放。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Multiple-

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

2.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Sustainable Transportation provides a discussion forum for the exchange of new and innovative ideas on sustainable transportation research in the context of environmental, economical, social, and engineering aspects, as well as current and future interactions of transportation systems and other urban subsystems. The scope includes the examination of overall sustainability of any transportation system, including its infrastructure, vehicle, operation, and maintenance; the integration of social science disciplines, engineering, and information technology with transportation; the understanding of the comparative aspects of different transportation systems from a global perspective; qualitative and quantitative transportation studies; and case studies, surveys, and expository papers in an international or local context. Equal emphasis is placed on the problems of sustainable transportation that are associated with passenger and freight transportation modes in both industrialized and non-industrialized areas. All submitted manuscripts are subject to initial evaluation by the Editors and, if found suitable for further consideration, to peer review by independent, anonymous expert reviewers. All peer review is single-blind. Submissions are made online via ScholarOne Manuscripts.