Evolution and Prospects of Turkiye–Azerbaijan–Pakistan Scalene Triangle

Abstract

The article concentrates on historic prerequisites of Turkiye–Azerbaijan–Pakistan triangle with special emphasis on two vibrant tracks: Turkiye–Azerbaijan relations before the establishment of the USSR and Turkiye–Pakistan relations during the Cold War. Combined, these tracks shape the basis for the present triangle. The authors trace the triangle’s history back to the establishment of Azerbaijan’s independence and cover crucial spheres of cooperation between the nations: political interaction and their shared stance on security problems such as Nagorno-Karabakh, Kashmir, the Cyprus issue, as well as tensions in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean; economic links in general and energy cooperation in particular; defense cooperation, assistance in military training, dynamics of arms trade and its prospects. The institutionalization of the triangle took place in 2017 after the signing of Baku Declaration and was tested during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020. Since the triangle saw success in the war, the parties have boosted their brotherly partnership with the first trilateral joint military drills launched in 2021. The authors claim that Turkiye and Azerbaijan will remain agenda-setters with Pakistan trying to correlate its national interests, which are hardly existent in the South Caucasus, with the triangle’s core. In case of Pakistani involvement in regional security issues, the authors propose two scenarios for Russia. The first one entails Russia serving as a mediator between Armenia, Iran and India. The second one calls on Armenia, India and Russia to develop trilateral defense cooperation that would benefit all the parties: Armenia would gain new sophisticated arms, India could acquire a reliable client, with Russia trying to implement a new form of defense cooperation so as to strengthen its position in global arms market.