The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003

Martin Geiger , Jochen Güntner

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was largely unanticipated. Even after the “Leave” vote, surprises regarding the withdrawal process affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on asset prices and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit surprises. Including a monthly aggregate of this instrument into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, an adverse Brexit surprise lowers GDP growth while raising CPI inflation. We provide evidence that the Bank of England fended off a worse economic contraction.

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英国脱欧与英国货币政策大事记

2016 年 6 月英国脱欧公投的结果在很大程度上出乎意料。即使在 "脱欧 "投票之后，有关英国退欧进程的意外也影响了英国经济。我们利用下议院图书馆发布的官方政治事件清单以及资产价格和经济政策不确定性的每日数据，构建了一个新的英国脱欧意外工具。将该工具的月度总量纳入英国经济的向量自回归模型后，不利的脱欧意外会降低 GDP 增长率，同时提高 CPI 通胀率。我们提供的证据表明，英国央行避免了更严重的经济萎缩。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.