JUE Insight: Hot temperatures, aggression, and death at the hands of the police: Evidence from the U.S

Abstract

We study the effect of temperature on police-involved civilian deaths in the U.S. from 2000 to 2016. We show that both violent crimes and the number of officers assaulted or killed increase on warmer days ($\ge 17°C$), indicating greater personal danger to officers and bystanders on such days. Consistent with these higher threat levels, we find suggestive evidence that fatal shootings of civilians by officers similarly increase on warmer days. However, when we account for surges in officer–civilian interaction, we find no additional effect of high temperatures on fatal shootings, indicating a lack of behavioral or physiological response on the part of officers. Finally, our results for other causes of death show that, on extremely warm days ($\ge 32°C$), the number of casualties associated with the use of Tasers and physical restraints is significantly higher independently of increased interaction between officers and civilians. The results suggest a need to reevaluate the use of Tasers and physical restraint techniques to prevent unintended deaths.