A Spatial Analysis of Decisions Made in Response to Simulated Tornado Warnings in the United States

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Taylor DeWinter-Maciag, Renee A. McPherson
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Abstract

Abstract Although decision-making in response to tornado warnings is well researched, most studies do not examine whether individual responses to these warnings vary across different geographical locations and demographic groups. This gap is addressed by using data from a decision experiment that places participants virtually in a simulated tornado warning and asks them to minimize the costs of their decisions. The authors examine the following: 1) what demographic attributes may contribute to choices to minimize costs to protect assets at a specific location in a tornado warning, 2) whether there is a spatial component to how these attributes influence decision-making, and 3) if there are specific U.S. regions where individuals do not make protective decisions that minimize their overall cost. Multilevel regression analysis and poststratification are applied to data from the simulated decision experiment to estimate which demographic attributes and National Weather Service County Warning Areas are most associated with the costliest protective decisions. The results are then analyzed using spatial autocorrelation to identify spatial patterns. Results indicate that sex, race, and ethnicity are important factors that influence protection decisions. Findings also show that people across the southern portions of the United States tend to make more costly protective decisions, as defined in this work. Significance Statement Tornadoes, although rare, threaten both life and property. Studies have shown that certain demographic groups are more negatively impacted by disasters than others and are at higher risk of severe weather hazards. We ask if there are demographic characteristics or geographic locations in common among people who are more prone to making protection decisions during tornado warnings to minimize economic costs. Results can help warning providers, such as the National Weather Service, direct resources and education to specific types of decision-makers or locations to improve sheltering decisions.
美国对模拟龙卷风预警作出的决策的空间分析
虽然人们对龙卷风预警的响应决策进行了充分的研究,但大多数研究并未考察个人对这些预警的反应是否在不同的地理位置和人口群体中有所不同。通过使用决策实验的数据来解决这一差距,该实验将参与者虚拟地置于模拟龙卷风警报中,并要求他们将其决策的成本最小化。作者研究了以下内容:1)在龙卷风警报中,哪些人口统计属性可能有助于选择将保护资产的成本降至最低;2)这些属性如何影响决策是否存在空间因素;3)美国是否存在个人不做出保护决策以将其总体成本降至最低的特定地区。多水平回归分析和后分层应用于模拟决策实验的数据,以估计哪些人口统计属性和国家气象局县警报区域与最昂贵的保护决策最相关。然后使用空间自相关对结果进行分析,以识别空间模式。结果表明,性别、种族和民族是影响保护决策的重要因素。研究结果还表明,美国南部地区的人们倾向于做出更昂贵的保护决定,正如这项工作所定义的那样。龙卷风虽然罕见,但对生命和财产都构成威胁。研究表明,某些人口群体比其他人更容易受到灾害的负面影响,遭受恶劣天气灾害的风险更高。我们的问题是,在龙卷风预警期间,人们是否更倾向于做出保护决定,以尽量减少经济成本,这些人是否有人口特征或地理位置上的共同点。结果可以帮助警报提供者,如国家气象局,直接向特定类型的决策者或地点提供资源和教育,以改善庇护决策。
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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