Influence of helio-meteorological factors on the epidemic process of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and forecasting of morbidity in the forest-steppe and steppe landscapes

Abstract

On the territory of the Orenburg region over a 25-year period, we studied the influence of 43 helio-meteorological factors on the cumulative incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in the population of the forest-steppe and steppe landscapes. It is shown that in of the forest-steppe landscape the priority helio-meteorological risk factors for the incidence of HFRS were: an increase in precipitation in March of the current year and in October of the previous year, as well as an increase in the Wolf number with a shift relative to the incidence to the left by 6 years. On the territory of the steppe landscape, the leading helio-meteorological risk factors for the epidemic process of HFRS were: a decrease in precipitation in June of the previous year, an increase in precipitation in February of the current year, and an increase in the Wolf number with a shift to the left relative to the incidence by 3 years. We have obtained regression equations for a short-term (for the current year) forecast of the intensity of the epidemic process of HFRS, taking into account helio-meteorological factors in the territory of the forest-steppe and steppe landscapes. These mathematical equations have been tested against actual morbidity rates. They can be recommended for practical use, as well as further improvement of the model. Keywords: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, forest-steppe and steppe landscapes, prognosis, incidence.