The excise duty gap on tobacco products in Poland

Abstract

One of the ways to raise budget revenue from taxes involves sealing the tax system. This includes eliminating evasion of the payment of excise duty on tobacco products, especially traditional cigarettes and tobacco used for roll-your-own cigarettes. The aim of the research described in the article is to estimate the excise duty gap on tobacco products in Poland on the basis of a survey addressed directly to consumers. The data were drawn from reports prepared for the Polish Chief Sanitary Inspectorate (Pol. Główny Inspektorat Sanitarny – GIS), covering the years 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019. The number of consumed traditional and roll-your-own cigarettes was calculated. Therefore, the estimates are more consistent with the definition of a tax gap as they include the consumption of roll-your-own cigarettes. According to the research, the excise duty gap on tobacco products was relatively stable between 2013 and 2017 (fluctuating from PLN 5.69 bn to PLN 6.98 bn) and then dropped considerably in 2019 (to PLN 0.94 bn). Nonetheless, increasing the state budget revenue from excise duty on tobacco products is still possible. The growth in the number of smokers in the years 2021 and 2022 allowed the predication that, if other conditions remained the same, the excise duty gap in 2022 would increase in comparison to 2019.