Zmiany wartości polskiego eksportu w ujęciu Trade in Value Added na tle krajów Grupy Wyszehradzkiej

Michał Nowicki
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Abstract

Research on export based on domestic value added greatly complements the knowledge about the gross export of a given country. This measure provides not only information on trade flows, but also makes it possible to determine how much they are the result of work carried out in a given country and to what extent they depend on other links of value chains. The Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database, created by OECD and the WTO, provides such information. However, the data tend to be rarely analysed and presented in public discourse. The aim of the study presented in the paper is to show the changes in Polish export based on TiVA. In order to create a complete picture of the situation of Poland, the data covering TiVA for Poland were compared with analogous results obtained for the other Visegrad Group countries, whose economies share similar historical and geopolitical conditions: the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The study uses data covering the period between 2004 (the year Poland joined the EU) and 2018 (the last year available in the database) and applies descriptive and statistical methods. The main hypothesis of the paper, stating that TiVA in Polish export grows relatively slower than the value of export measured in the traditional way, was verified. Additionally, a supporting hypothesis, assuming that TiVA in Polish export increases relatively slower than in the other researched countries, was also examined. The analysis shows that Poland has a significantly higher percentage of domestic value added in export and the dynamics of the changes in this factor is higher compared to the other Visegrad Group countries. Nevertheless, the growth rate of Polish gross export measured in the traditional way is higher than the export measured according to TiVA.
与维谢格拉德集团国家相比,波兰出口值在贸易增值方面的变化
以国内增加值为基础的出口研究,极大地补充了有关一国出口总额的知识。这一措施不仅提供了有关贸易流动的信息,而且还使人们有可能确定它们在多大程度上是在特定国家开展工作的结果,以及它们在多大程度上依赖于价值链的其他环节。经合组织和世贸组织共同建立的增值贸易数据库提供了这类信息。然而,这些数据往往很少在公共话语中进行分析和呈现。本文提出的研究目的是显示波兰出口基于贸易增加值的变化。为了全面了解波兰的情况,将波兰的TiVA数据与维谢格拉德集团其他国家的类似结果进行了比较,这些国家的经济具有相似的历史和地缘政治条件:捷克共和国、斯洛伐克和匈牙利。该研究使用了2004年(波兰加入欧盟之年)至2018年(数据库中可用的最后一年)期间的数据,并采用了描述性和统计方法。本文的主要假设,即波兰出口贸易增加值的增长相对于传统方法测量的出口价值增长较慢,得到了验证。此外,还审查了一个支持性假设,即波兰出口贸易增加值的增长速度比其他研究国家相对较慢。分析表明,波兰在出口中增加的国内价值的百分比要高得多,与其他维谢格拉德集团国家相比,这一因素的变化动态更高。然而,波兰以传统方式衡量的出口总额增长率高于按TiVA衡量的出口增长率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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