SimplETAS: A Benchmark Earthquake Forecasting Model Suitable for Operational Purposes and Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract

Abstract The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is the most effective mathematical description of the short-term space–time earthquake clustering. However, the use of such a model is sometimes hampered by the difficulty in estimating the high number of its unknown correlated parameters. Moreover, the most recent ETAS formulations introduce the space–time variability of some parameters that makes their estimation even more arduous. Here, we investigate the model in an opposite perspective, looking for the simplest ETAS parameterization that can satisfactorily describes the earthquake clustering in crustal tectonic regions; we named this model simplETAS. We show that simplETAS calibrated with the Italian seismicity of the last decades adequately describes the space–time occurrence of the out-of-sample largest earthquakes in the instrumental and historical catalog, confirming the validity of the assumptions made to build the model. Owing to its simplicity, simplETAS is easily applicable in most regions, and it has some important properties that are worth being remarked. First, simplETAS can be used as a benchmark model to assess the relative predictive skill of more complex earthquake forecasts. Second, it may be used for operational earthquake forecasting purposes in regions with limited earthquake catalogs. Third, it provides a straightforward, flexible, and effective approach to generate synthetic earthquake catalogs of variable length to be implemented in seismic hazard and risk analysis, overcoming all the declustering-related problems and the controversial Poisson assumption.