Asymmetric business cycle changes in US carbon emissions and oil market shocks

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Xueting Jiang, David I. Stern
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract Previous research shows that, in the USA, the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to GDP is greater when GDP declines than when GDP increases. Using monthly US data, we examine each individual recession since 1973. We find asymmetric changes in carbon emissions in the 1973–1975, 1980, 1990–1991, and 2020 recessions but not in the 1981–1982, 2001, or 2008–2009 recessions. The former four recessions are associated with negative oil market shocks. In the first three, there was a supply shock and in 2020, a demand shock. Changes in oil consumption that are not explained by changes in GDP explain these asymmetries. Furthermore, the asymmetries are due to emissions in the transport and industrial sectors, which are the main consumers of oil. We conclude that emissions behaved similarly in 2020 to the way they did in recessions associated with oil supply shocks, but, actually, this pattern is not inherent to the business cycle itself.

Abstract Image

美国碳排放和石油市场冲击的不对称商业周期变化
以往的研究表明,在美国,当GDP下降时,碳排放相对于GDP的弹性大于GDP增长时。我们利用美国的月度数据,研究了1973年以来的每一次衰退。我们发现1973-1975年、1980年、1990-1991年和2020年经济衰退期间碳排放的变化是不对称的,而1981-1982年、2001年和2008-2009年经济衰退期间碳排放的变化是不对称的。前四次经济衰退都与石油市场的负面冲击有关。前三年出现了供应冲击,2020年出现了需求冲击。石油消费的变化不能用GDP的变化来解释这些不对称。此外,这种不对称是由于运输和工业部门的排放造成的,这些部门是石油的主要消费者。我们得出的结论是,2020年的排放表现与石油供应冲击引发的衰退相似,但实际上,这种模式并非商业周期本身所固有的。
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来源期刊
Climatic Change
Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
10.20
自引率
4.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.
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