Analysis of output and output volatility connectedness of Nigeria, USA, China and India: new empirical insights from the global financial crisis versus 2016 Nigerian recession

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with USA, China and India using quarterly data from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and used the normalized generalized forecast error variance decomposition from an underlying vector error correction model to build connectedness measures. Findings The findings show that the global financial crisis (GFC) increased the connectedness index far more than the 2016 Nigeria economic recession. The moderate effect of the 2016 Nigeria economic recession on the connectedness index underscores the fact that Nigeria is a small, open economy with minimal capacity to spread output shock. For both real output and its volatility, the total connectedness index rose smoothly and systematically through time, thereby leaving the economies more connected in the long run. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the first to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with the USA, China and India using new empirical insights from the GFC versus 2016 Nigerian recession. The study, therefore, concludes that the Nigerian economy should be diversified immediately as a hedge against future real output shocks, while the USA, China and India should maintain and sustain their current policy frameworks to remain less vulnerable to real output shocks.