AN APPROACH TO MODELING THE PROBABLE CONSUMERS DEMAND OF FOOD PRODUCTS USING PEARSON DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AND JOHNSON DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Abstract

To meet the random consumers demand the distributors maintain inventory. For optimal inventory control under random demand it is necessary to know the cumulative distribution function (CDF). The practical determination of CDF is related with a number of difficulties. This paper proposes a way to construct a probability distribution function of demand. Data on weekly sales of over 400 types of food products over a period of five years in a small distribution company were analyzed. The ARIMA model was used for primary analysis of the consumption data. Random variables are modeled using Pearson Distribution System and Johnson Distribution System and can be used to determine inventory management strategies.