The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth, and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the U.K.

IF 5.9 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI:10.1093/restud/rdad086

Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Thomas Drechsel, Richard Harrison, Silvana Tenreyro

引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract The U.K. economy experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. To understand these adjustments, this paper presents empirical facts using novel U.K. macroeconomic data and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors. We demonstrate that the referendum outcome can be interpreted as news about a future decline in productivity growth in the tradable sector. An immediate fall in the relative price of non-tradable goods induces a temporary “sweet spot” for tradable producers. Economic activity in the tradable sector expands in the short run, while the non-tradable sector contracts. Aggregate output, consumption, and investment growth decelerate.

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英国脱欧公投、生产率增长和宏观经济调整

2016年英国脱欧公投后，英国经济经历了重大宏观经济调整。为了理解这些调整，本文使用新的英国宏观经济数据展示了经验事实，并估计了一个包含可贸易和不可贸易部门的小型开放经济模型。我们证明，公投结果可以被解释为有关贸易部门生产率增长未来下降的消息。非贸易商品相对价格的立即下降，会给可贸易生产商带来暂时的“甜蜜点”。短期内，可贸易部门的经济活动扩张，而非贸易部门的经济活动收缩。总产出、消费和投资增长减速。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.40

自引率

3.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Founded in 1933 by a group of young British and American economists, The Review of Economic Studies aims to encourage research in theoretical and applied economics, especially by young economists. Today it is widely recognised as one of the core top-five economics journals. The Review is essential reading for economists and has a reputation for publishing path-breaking papers in theoretical and applied economics. The Review is committed to continuing to publish strong papers in all areas of economics. The Editors aim to provide an efficient and high-quality review process to the Review''s authors. Where articles are sent out for full review, authors receive careful reports and feedback. Since 1989 The Review has held annual May Meetings to offer young students in economics and finance the chance to present their research to audiences in Europe.