Ускорение реконфигурации Мир-Системы в связи с СВО и возможные сценарии будущего. Ст. 2. Возможные сценарии реконфигурации Мир-Системы и мирового порядка

Abstract

Since February 2022, the World-System has entered a new phase of development. Its reconfiguration, associated with the weakening of American dominance, which has been going on since at least 2008 (since the outbreak of the global crisis), has accelerated. The uncertainty about the outcome of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine (SMO), the split in the world, the collapse of the world economy into a number of economic zones, the prospect of the formation of financial and monetary zones and other processes open up other options for transformation of the world order than those that seemed dominant yesterday. The present article aims at bringing together various factors of change into a single picture, to identify a range of possible scenarios for the reconfiguration of the World-System and the transformation of the world order. The present study consists of two closely related articles. In the first article, ‘The Impact of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine on the Reconfiguration of the World-System ‘, we considered the following issues: the balance of power in the USA and the world as a whole due to SMO in Ukraine; which forces in the USA and Europe benefit from the military conflict and which do not; how the military conflict undermines the US world order; why the World-System reconfiguration has been accelerating and what new phase it is entering. It is shown how the situation will change in developed and developing states, and how the global contradiction of the modern world is being transformed. In the second article ‘Possible Scenarios for the Reconfiguration of the World- System and of the World Order’ as the title suggests, we consider in detail several possible scenarios for changes in the World-System in connection with the SMO in Ukraine and the collapse of the modern American world order as well as a number of other aspects of the transformation of the world order.