Влияние внутриполитических факторов в различных странах на социально-политическую дестабилизацию: опыт количественного анализа

Abstract

The events of the early 2000s showed that the technologies for changing power through ‘color revolutions’ mostly work in developing countries characterized, among other things, by a long period of rule of one leader. The objective of this study is to study, using quantitative methods, the existence of relationships and patterns between the duration of a leader's staying in power and the integral index of socio-political destabilization in various countries. The statistical analysis carried out showed that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the indicator of the duration of the leader’s continuous rule and the integral index of socio-political destabilization in countries that are partial autocracies. It is known ‘intermediate’ countries that are in the process of transition to modern institutional democracy (or formally striving for such a transition, declaring it) are the most vulnerable to destabilization. Our study shows that one of the factors that increase the likelihood of instability in such countries is long stay of the leader in power. It should be noted that from the point of view of political science, Russia is a developed state with a complex and well-established political culture, capable of effectively resisting attempts to destabilize by organizing ‘color revolutions’.