Putting Bilateral Aid Where Their Mouths Are: Evaluating Democratic Coalition Commitment in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

The European Union (EU)’s response to the 2022 outbreak of open armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a notable example of democratic coalition involvement— where several democracies elect to involve themselves (either directly or indirectly) in conflict as part of a multinational force. However, in terms of aid as a percentage of GDP, there are significant variations in bilateral commitments. This article accounts for the difference in coalition commitment between EU states by evaluating a set of conditions across different phases of the conflict. Pulling from notable literature using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to explain variances in coalition behavior, I develop a model which shows the “pathways” to high coalition commitment for states in the EU. My model uses four conditions: leftist partisanship, recent elections, upcoming elections, and high Ukrainian refugee intake. I find four notable configurations of conditions which explain the outcome.