Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the Vietnam stock exchange: An empirical analysis

Abstract

The emergence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 led to a global crisis with profound implications for public health and the global economy. This study investigates the ramifications of the pandemic on the Vietnam Stock Exchange, recognizing its interconnectedness with global financial markets. Despite the considerable speculation surrounding the pandemic's influence on economic and financial systems worldwide, limited empirical research has been conducted on its specific impact on the Vietnam Stock Exchange. Employing historical data spanning from January 30, 2020, to April 27, 2022, sourced from a secondary dataset, this research empirically explores the performance of the Vietnam Stock Exchange during the COVID-19 pandemic period compared to a normal period. The findings reveal a significant decline in stock returns and heightened volatility during the pandemic, signaling adverse effects on the exchange's performance. Furthermore, the study applies Quadratic GARCH (QGARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models, incorporating a dummy variable, to scrutinize stock returns. The results corroborate the pandemic's negative impact on stock returns in Vietnam. This research underscores the importance of implementing strategic political and economic policies, including maintaining a stable political environment, promoting indigenous enterprises, diversifying the economy, and adopting a flexible exchange rate regime. These measures are recommended to enhance the resilience of the financial market and attract new investors to the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.