A methodology to determine the target reliability of natural gas pipeline systems based on risk acceptance criteria of pipelines

IF 4.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Xiangying Shan , Weichao Yu , Jing Gong , Kai Wen , Hao Wang , Shipeng Ren , Shengyuan Wei , Bin Wang , Guoyin Gao , Guodong Zhang
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Abstract

The reliable operation of the natural gas pipeline system is directly related to natural gas supply security, and it is vital to determine the target reliability of the natural gas pipeline system when assessing whether the system is reliable. In this study, a methodology to determine the target reliability of natural gas pipeline system based on the risk acceptance criteria of pipelines is proposed, and the methodology consists of three parts. Firstly, the risk acceptance criteria of the natural gas pipelines are determined based on the existing standards. Secondly, the failure consequence model of natural gas pipelines considering the pipeline properties and surroundings is developed, and the corresponding allowable pipeline failure probabilities are calculated according to the risk theory. Finally, the evaluation model of the gas supply reliability for natural gas pipeline systems considering the unit’s failure and hydraulic characteristics is developed, and the target reliability of natural gas pipeline systems is calculated by employing the allowable pipeline failure probabilities. Furthermore, a real natural gas pipeline system is employed to determine its target reliability, and the target value is compared with the actual value of the gas supply reliability. Based on the compared results, the corresponding measure to improve the gas supply reliability is proposed.

根据管道风险接受标准确定天然气管道系统目标可靠性的方法
天然气管道系统的可靠运行直接关系到天然气的供应安全,在评估天然气管道系统是否可靠时,确定天然气管道系统的目标可靠性至关重要。本研究提出了一种基于管道风险接受准则确定天然气管道系统目标可靠性的方法,该方法由三部分组成。首先,根据现有标准确定天然气管道的风险接受标准。其次,建立考虑管道特性和周围环境的天然气管道失效后果模型,并根据风险理论计算相应的允许管道失效概率。最后,建立了考虑单元故障和水力特性的天然气管道系统供气可靠性评价模型,并利用允许的管道故障概率计算出天然气管道系统的目标可靠性。此外,还利用一个真实的天然气管道系统来确定其目标可靠性,并将目标值与供气可靠性的实际值进行比较。根据比较结果,提出了提高供气可靠性的相应措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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CiteScore
7.50
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