Application of fuzzy failure mode effect analysis and expected value method for project risk analysis of elevated corridor metro rail projects

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to develop a methodology of risk analysis by the use of fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FFMEA) and expected value method (EVM) of elevated corridor construction for metro rail. Case studies of Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar metro rail and Mumbai metro rail construction in India, at various phases, are presented to validate the concept of this technique. According to EVM analysis, for elevated corridor projects about 81% risks are in the domain of 'critical' and 19% risks are under the domain of 'high' risk severity. According to FFMEA analysis about 85% of the risks fall under 'critical' severity category and rest 15% of the risks fall under 'v. high' and 'high' risk category. Thus quite similar results are obtained from both techniques. The project authorities need to adopt risk mitigation measures to avoid undue time and cost overrun for the project.