Succession versus Transition

Abstract

Although the current regime has attempted to install a viable successor to the Castro brothers, the future of the island nation’s political structure can take a number of different paths. Since so much of U.S. approach toward diplomatic normalization with Cuba has hinged on regime change, the possibilities of political succession and transition are of paramount importance. This chapter addresses theories of political transition and succession to discuss the Cuban case. Using democratic transitions around the world, and among Cuba’s neighbors, as a point of departure this chapter addresses the key players and strategies that are most likely to be invoked over the next few decades both over the short, medium, and long term.