The Spread of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) for Tertiary Education in the Philippines: A Bass Diffusion Model

Abstract

This study predicts the spread of the new government program to be availed by out of school youths whose households are beneficiaries of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) using the Bass Diffusion Model. The model predicts the time and magnitudeof newly released products and services. The diffusion of innovations (DoI) paradigm is a way of studyingthe spread of a new product and servicesthat will be adopted over time by the first adapters, then subsequent imitators and adapters that could be accommodated within the program. This model is applied to the spread of the information of the government Tertiary Education Subsidy program on the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) among the Filipino youth with a target of spreading the information to out ofschool youths. The cash transfer allows a beneficiary to enroll in tertiary education with allowance and free tuition fees. The enrolment for the first semester for five years (CY 2014-2018) was obtained from the quarterly reports of the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and was applied in the Bass forecasting spreadsheet. Cumulative diffusion and saturation point were categorically determined by the CCT beneficiaries from the initial adapters, imitators, and the potential imitators. Findings revealed that there was a slow diffusion at the early stage of CCT beneficiaries in tertiary education. However, the forecast revealed that almost one million of the beneficiaries could benefit from the program after 30 years. It will take four years for students to finish their higher education degree before they can be considered part of the working force. Significantly, short-term course offerings that are skill-based may be offered to students to acquire knowledge, expertise in the tools, equipment, or technology and materials used and interactions they need to get a job thus, earning wages to help the family earn a living.