Investigation of The Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Tekirdağ Case

Abstract

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation in a specific location, Tekirdag, Turkey. Trends in rainfall extremes for (1963-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24 hours are determined by using 1:1 straight line method and Mann-Kendall trend test. Also, daily (24h) future projections for Tekirdag region are assessed and bias corrected with Quantile Mapping method for the 2015-2050 period. Subsequently, observed and bias corrected daily (24h) time series are used for the Generalized Extreme Value analyses to quantify the potential changes with respect to observation period. Most of the observed time series show increasing trend tendency. Considering the projected data driven analyses results; for shorter return periods results show smaller variations while variability increase with the increasing return period. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways, there are different results for the future extreme rainfall; yet all results indicate an increasing extreme daily rainfall magnitude at Tekirdag Province.