Development Analysis of Chili Imports in East Java

Buletin Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Haluoleo Pub Date : 2022-06-08 DOI:10.37149/bpsosek.v24i1.25197

Megawati Mahardika Rizky Setyaningtyas, S. Widayanti, Mubarokah Mubarokah, P. D. Wijayati

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Abstract

East Java Province is one of the leading national chili producers. But, East Java still imports chilies to meet fluctuating demand and prices. The variables of imports, production, consumption, pricing, and currency rates were employed in this study and ranged from 2019 to 2021. This study aims to forecast the volume of chili imports in East Java for the next year (12 months) and analyze the factors that influence chili imports in East Java to determine the most dominant influencing factors. The method used in this study is (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMA model and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study show: The development of chili imports in East Java in the prediction results with the ARIMA model (1,1,1) shows that chili imports have a downward trend, and simultaneously chili imports are influenced by production, consumption, price, and exchange rate, with consumption as the most dominant factor. It is hoped that the government will regulate the volume of imports by imposing import quotas and controlling chili prices

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东爪哇辣椒进口发展分析

东爪哇省是全国主要的辣椒生产地之一。但是，东爪哇仍然进口辣椒以满足波动的需求和价格。本研究采用了进口、生产、消费、定价和汇率等变量，范围为2019年至2021年。本研究旨在预测未来一年(12个月)东爪哇辣椒进口量，并分析影响东爪哇辣椒进口量的因素，确定最主要的影响因素。本研究采用自回归综合移动平均ARIMA模型和多元线性回归分析方法。研究结果表明:在ARIMA模型(1,1,1)预测结果中，东爪哇辣椒进口发展呈下降趋势，同时辣椒进口受生产、消费、价格和汇率的影响，其中消费是最主要的影响因素。希望政府能通过进口配额和控制辣椒价格来控制进口量

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Buletin Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Haluoleo

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