Multi-variate Weibull model for predicting system-reliability, from testing results of the components

Abstract

This paper discusses the problem of system reliability prediction by accelerated testing results on its components. This problem appears when the testing of a system as a whole either has high cost or may be impossible in a short period of time, especially at the beginning of development. A multi-variate Weibull model is proposed to utilize testing results of components in predicting system reliability with reduced test length and minimized cost. Prediction of system reliability in a given situation means that we must know how to calculate not only the point estimation of reliability index, but also the lower confidence bound (LCB) with given confidence probability q (q=0.8-0.95). In this case, the authors' goal is to give the algorithm for calculating not by approximation for LCB (based as a rule on normal distribution of point reliability estimation), but exact LCB corresponding to a given confidence probability.