El Nino based intervention analysis of Rainfall in Tamilnadu

Abstract

The El Nino or Southern Oscillation is the outcome of the strong coupling and interactions between the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere, which plays a major role in the development of global climatic system. In this study, a data set containing the Monthly Rainfall in Tamilnadu and a data set containing the Sea Surface Temperature of Nino 3.4 for 59 years (1950 – 2008) are used to model and analyse the impact of El Nino events in the Annual Rainfall of Tamilnadu through Intervention analysis. The experimental results show that the ARIMA - Intervention model is more precise in explaining and analysing the effect of Intervention events.