Analysis of the Results and the Factors of Victory and Defeat of the 2022 Jeju Local Elections

Abstract

This study analyzed the factors of victory and defeat in the Jeju local elections in 2022. First, as a party factor, the Democratic Party's support was high in the recent general and presidential elections. And the Democratic Party formed an atmosphere of unity without conflict after the presidency. On the other hand, the early resignation of Provincial Governor Won Hee-ryong, low support for state affairs, and failure to find outside talent for provincial councilors were analyzed as the failure of the People power party. Second, as the character factor, Candidate Young-hoon Oh expanded his public awareness by taking on a key position in central politics and his achievements in government affairs, and he outperformed his opponent, Hyang-jin Heo, in character vote power. Third, as an issue factor, Candidate Huh failed to produce or utilize policy and political issues well from the challenger's point of view. On the other hand, Candidate Oh skillfully defended the unfavorable issue. Fourth, as a regional factor, Candidate Oh's high vote in Seogwipo reflects the expectations of Seogwipo voters, who have been neglected. Fifth, as a voter factor, the increase in Jeju's migrants in their 30s, 40s, and 50s was highly related to the Democratic Party support tendency.